Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 52% (5923–5574, n=11497) · was PM monthly #970 · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
5923W / 5574L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 11497 settled
Batting Avg
62.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1598
Source
PM monthly #970 + pinned
Trades
503,244
Markets
29,696
Volume
$66.9M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 84 on the consensus side (49%)- Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?No $11K · now 87¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?No $7.7K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $6.6K · now 43¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (59% of 44)
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?No $4.8K · now 19¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $4.0K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $3.1K · now 46¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $3.0K · now 38¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under $1.7K · now 51¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (70% of 15)
Specialties
8,666 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 61¢- MLB
+50 pts
side won 100% of 62 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +53%
- NBA
+44 pts
side won 98% of 316 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +40%
- NHL
+43 pts
side won 99% of 101 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 99% of 776)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 100% of 1842)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 100% of 2554)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 3494)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.