Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 9INE Academy, while the market favors Teletubisie (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: 9INE Academy vs Teletubisie (BO3) - United21 Group A
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 9INE Academy (40%) · 9INE Academy at 47¢ · $669 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
9INE Academy
5
9INE Academy 40%
$669.4
-$11.96
40.5¢ → 46.5¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutral9INE Academy at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Teletubisie 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on 9INE Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | 9INE Academyavg 39.2¢ | $293.2 | $314.16 | +$20.96 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Teletubisieavg 52.6¢ | $156.16 | $158.86 | +$2.7 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR | 9INE Academyavg 43.4¢ | $141.98 | $137.51 | -$4.48 | 6% 28-440 (468) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Teletubisieavg 82.7¢ | $80.73 | $48.49 | -$26.29 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Teletubisieavg 78.5¢ | $15.24 | $10.39 | -$4.85 | 62% 1328-800 (2128) |
Invested
$293.2
Value
$314.16
PnL
+$20.96
Record
—
Invested
$156.16
Value
$158.86
PnL
+$2.7
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$141.98
Value
$137.51
PnL
-$4.48
Record
6%
28-440 (468)
Invested
$80.73
Value
$48.49
PnL
-$26.29
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$4.85
Record
62%
1328-800 (2128)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.