Consensus PnL $47K · win rate 61% (2428–1570, n=3998) · PM monthly #347 · holds 34 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$47.5K
Record
2428W / 1570L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 3998 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1101
Source
PM monthly #347
Trades
641
Markets
6,180
Volume
$891.7K
Top consensus positions
34 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 34 on the consensus side (41%)- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.1K · now 63¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $1.1K · now 27¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?No $703 · now 56¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes $659 · now 71¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?No $423 · now 85¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?No $370 · now 88¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes $346 · now 28¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?Yes $289 · now 24¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
1,463 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+26 pts
side won 82% of 367 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +14%
- Mentions
+33 pts
side won 95% of 42 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +28%
- NHL
+45 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 28% of 371)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 63% of 296)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 85% of 305)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 98% of 491)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.