Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Zenith, while the market favors PlayTime (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Zenith (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Zenith (57%) · Zenith at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

PlayTime51¢Zenith49¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zenith

Consensus Traders

Zenith 57%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$9.04

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 49.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime51%

Zenith50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zenith4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,597

Combined PnL+$578.43

PlayTime3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,190

Combined PnL-$569.39

Zenith — 57%PlayTime — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZenith 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPlayTime 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Zenith 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
handandfacetattoCTR	Zenithavg 41¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	+$546.52	100% 74-0 (74)
JU JuiceFarm	PlayTimeavg 80¢	$1.5K	$959.5	-$560.5	63% 19-11 (30)
38 38791873984189	PlayTimeavg 53.6¢	$144.71	$136.37	-$8.34	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100	Zenithavg 44¢	$79.69	$90.56	+$10.87	—
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR<$100	Zenithavg 48¢	$39	$40.66	+$1.65	6% 28-440 (468)
PA Pan9X<$100	PlayTimeavg 53.3¢	$10.65	$10.1	-$0.55	49% 683-724 (1407)
LhordGryffinCTR	Zenithavg 48.8¢	$773.89	$3.91	+$19.39	— 19-0 (19)

handandfacetattoCTR

Zenith

Invested

$2,593.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$546.52

Record

100%

74-0 (74)

JuiceFarm

PlayTime

Invested

$1,520

Value

$959.5

PnL

-$560.5

Record

63%

19-11 (30)

38791873984189

PlayTime

Invested

$144.71

Value

$136.37

PnL

-$8.34

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100

Zenith

Invested

$79.69

Value

$90.56

PnL

+$10.87

Record

—

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR<$100

Zenith

Invested

$39

Value

$40.66

PnL

+$1.65

Record

28-440 (468)

Pan9X<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

LhordGryffinCTR

Zenith

Invested

$773.89

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$19.39

Record

—

19-0 (19)

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors PlayTime 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZenith 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPlayTime 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Zenith 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zenith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.