Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$26.34

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL+$24.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$132.2

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$1.66

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 62.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$24.76	51% 26028-24687 (50715)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$53.88	$54.5	+$0.62	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$49.13	$49.79	+$0.66	64% 10024-5638 (15662)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$27.53	$27.9	+$0.37	53% 16854-14976 (31830)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 63¢	$9.45	$9.3	-$0.08	53% 2589-2285 (4874)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,100.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$24.76

Record

51%

26028-24687 (50715)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.88

Value

$54.5

PnL

+$0.62

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.13

Value

$49.79

PnL

+$0.66

Record

64%

10024-5638 (15662)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.53

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

16854-14976 (31830)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2589-2285 (4874)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.