Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 88% (2282–316, n=2598) · PM monthly #982 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$32.2K
Record
2282W / 316L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 2598 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#286
Source
PM monthly #982
Record (90 d)
1170/1222 · 96%
Trades
1,010
Markets
2,779
Volume
$413.7K
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Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 20 on the consensus side (65%)- Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-11-03?No $984 · now 67¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-03?No $387 · now 23¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-11-03?No $10 · now 49¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Costa do Sauipe: Daniel Galan vs Gonzalo BuenoDaniel Galan $10 · now 56¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Spread: LASK Linz (-2.5)ŠK Slovan Bratislava $10 · now 70¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-11-03?No $10 · now 74¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-11-03?No $10 · now 53¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (76% of 43)
- Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5Over $10 · now 73¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
981 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 56¢- Soccer
+42 pts
side won 98% of 902 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +45%
- NBA
+51 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
- Tennis
+46 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 95% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 98% of 318)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 98% of 506)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 98% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.