Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.1K
-$0.57
49.1¢ → 49¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 49¢ | $952.52 | $867.59 | +$1.82 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 49.7¢ | $118.35 | $116.6 | -$1.74 | 48% 61202-65997 (127199) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $101.19 | $101.19 | -$0 | 64% 9928-5530 (15458) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $19.46 | $18.8 | -$0.65 | 33% 1166-2331 (3497) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$952.52
Value
$867.59
PnL
+$1.82
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$118.35
Value
$116.6
PnL
-$1.74
Record
48%
61202-65997 (127199)
Invested
$101.19
Value
$101.19
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
9928-5530 (15458)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0.65
Record
33%
1166-2331 (3497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.