Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 40% (1271–1886, n=3157) · was PM monthly #920 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-20.0K
Record
1271W / 1886L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 3157 settled
Batting Avg
48.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1528
Source
PM monthly #920
Record (90 d)
42/151 · 28%
Trades
277
Markets
3,370
Volume
$361.6K
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $26 · now 9¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (62% of 64)
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?Yes $15 · now 56¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-11-04?No $4 · now 53¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (89% of 14)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $1 · now 15¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,256 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 22¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 27% of 1142 · avg entry 23¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 14% of 22 · avg entry 8¢
ROI 0%
- Finance
+3 pts
side won 18% of 22 · avg entry 15¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 6% of 16 at an average 8¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 71%(won 7% of 891)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 60% of 149)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 75% of 146)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 86% of 70)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.