Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $834 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$833.81
$9.25
64.4¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $328.14 | $211.65 | +$0.71 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 64.1¢ | $301.7 | $194.6 | +$1.31 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 64¢ | $315.87 | $193.82 | +$1.92 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65.5¢ | $170.81 | $168.19 | -$2.63 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $257.73 | $57.59 | +$7.6 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $7.62 | $7.96 | +$0.34 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
Invested
$328.14
Value
$211.65
PnL
+$0.71
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$301.7
Value
$194.6
PnL
+$1.31
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$315.87
Value
$193.82
PnL
+$1.92
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$170.81
Value
$168.19
PnL
-$2.63
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
VeryLucky888Invested
$257.73
Value
$57.59
PnL
+$7.6
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$7.62
Value
$7.96
PnL
+$0.34
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.