Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$10.57

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,074

Combined PnL+$10.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$51.16

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$0.37

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$707.95	$713.15	+$5.2	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74¢	$675.13	$679.7	+$4.57	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74¢	$174.42	$175.6	+$1.18	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$23.92	$23.46	-$0.46	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$49.97	$10.98	+$0.28	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10.37	$9.62	-$0.19	45% 95-117 (212)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$7.11	$7.11	+$0	51% 27272-25818 (53090)

GC-P

Invested

$707.95

Value

$713.15

PnL

+$5.2

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-P

Invested

$675.13

Value

$679.7

PnL

+$4.57

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$174.42

Value

$175.6

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.92

Value

$23.46

PnL

-$0.46

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.97

Value

$10.98

PnL

+$0.28

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.37

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$0.19

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.11

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.