Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 80% (75–19, n=94) · was PM monthly #993 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.9K
Record
75W / 19L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 94 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#356
Source
PM monthly #993
Record (90 d)
45/54 · 83%
Trades
0
Markets
109
Volume
$223.9K
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 10 on the consensus side (40%)- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?Yes $15K · now 76¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (35% of 40)
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?Yes $37 · now 99¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (41% of 27)
- Will AEK vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Yes $18 · now 11¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?Yes $11 · now 20¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 24¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 55¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Viking FK vs. Sabah FK end in a draw?Yes $10 · now 30¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?Yes $10 · now 98¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (72% of 55)
Specialties
54 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 72¢- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 83% of 53 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 50% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 83% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 95% of 38)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.