Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.5K
$17.95
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.77 | 58% 46229-33359 (79588) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.2¢ | $559.61 | $563.16 | +$3.55 | 51% 25532-24237 (49769) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $337.28 | $333.76 | -$3.51 | 64% 1954-1086 (3040) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $82.39 | $84.81 | +$2.42 | 48% 60671-65334 (126005) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $67.37 | $68.09 | +$0.72 | 64% 9866-5558 (15424) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,508.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.77
Record
58%
46229-33359 (79588)
Invested
$559.61
Value
$563.16
PnL
+$3.55
Record
51%
25532-24237 (49769)
Invested
$337.28
Value
$333.76
PnL
-$3.51
Record
64%
1954-1086 (3040)
Invested
$82.39
Value
$84.81
PnL
+$2.42
Record
48%
60671-65334 (126005)
Invested
$67.37
Value
$68.09
PnL
+$0.72
Record
64%
9866-5558 (15424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.