Will NEC win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$5.6K
-$181.05
65.6¢ → 63.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 65.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$107.07 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$76.18 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $31 | $33.25 | +$2.25 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $17.44 | $17.28 | -$0.16 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $13.18 | $13.3 | +$0.12 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
Invested
$2,942.99
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$107.07
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$2,796.76
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$76.18
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$31
Value
$33.25
PnL
+$2.25
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$17.44
Value
$17.28
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$13.3
PnL
+$0.12
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.