CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $488 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$487.82
$161.99
68.3¢ → 100¢
+46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Overavg 99¢ | $201.3 | $203.23 | +$1.93 | 95% 23319-1170 (24489) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 33.7¢ | $55.91 | $179.75 | +$120.09 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $61.29 | $104.84 | +$48.39 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $5.28 | $0 | -$5.28 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $0 | -$3.15 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
Invested
$201.3
Value
$203.23
PnL
+$1.93
Record
95%
23319-1170 (24489)
Invested
$55.91
Value
$179.75
PnL
+$120.09
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$61.29
Value
$104.84
PnL
+$48.39
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$0
PnL
-$5.28
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$3.15
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.