Consensus PnL $302K · win rate 97% (23428–781, n=24209) · was PM monthly #645 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$301.5K
Record
23428W / 781L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 24209 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#131
Source
PM monthly #645
Record (90 d)
15971/16253 · 98%
Trades
876
Markets
25,022
Volume
$24.5M
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 16 on the consensus side (75%)- Will FC Andorra win on 2026-11-01?No $4.9K · now 98¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (62% of 23)
- M15 Antalya: Daniele Augenti vs Raffael GasanovDaniele Augenti $4.9K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Raffael Gasanov)
- Will CD Tenerife win on 2026-11-01?No $3.4K · now 98¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (67% of 30)
- Will CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra end in a draw?Yes $1.8K · now 77¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (50% of 24)
- CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5Under $1.1K · now 98¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 5.5Under $694 · now 60¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (67% of 11)
- M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Oskari Eerola vs Sidane PontjodikromoOskari Eerola $247 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Sidane Pontjodikromo)
- W15 Monastir: Sveva Pieroni vs Sophie EhrenbergerovaSophie Ehrenbergerova $203 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
15,321 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 97¢- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 98% of 8617 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+2 pts
side won 100% of 201 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +2%
- NBA
+2 pts
side won 98% of 251 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 98% of 410 at an average 98¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 22% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 52% of 86)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 84% of 186)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 99% of 15003)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.