Consensus PnL $11K · win rate 55% (2857–2353, n=5210) · was PM monthly #990 · holds 134 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.9K
Record
2857W / 2353L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 5210 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1433
Source
PM monthly #990
Trades
524
Markets
11,543
Volume
$934.1K
Top consensus positions
134 in listed consensus markets · 73 of 134 on the consensus side (54%)- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $2.3K · now 87¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $428 · now 63¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (61% of 48)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?No $303 · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-01?Yes $256 · now 62¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?Yes $250 · now 60¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $236 · now 85¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?No $211 · now 69¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 11)
- Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?No $205 · now 60¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
370 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 66¢- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 54 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +51%
- Soccer
+32 pts
side won 100% of 266 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +35%
- Tennis
+26 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 100% of 75)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 99% of 96)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 172)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.