Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $892 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$892.12
-$14.06
68.4¢ → 68.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.1¢ | $641.33 | $628.41 | -$12.92 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $174.32 | $177.14 | +$2.81 | 53% 232-209 (441) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $70.07 | $66.5 | -$3.57 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $17 | $16.75 | -$0.25 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $3.45 | $3.33 | -$0.13 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
Invested
$641.33
Value
$628.41
PnL
-$12.92
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$174.32
Value
$177.14
PnL
+$2.81
Record
53%
232-209 (441)
Invested
$70.07
Value
$66.5
PnL
-$3.57
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$17
Value
$16.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.