Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 2.2¢ · $20 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$20.35
-$9.15
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $11.02 | $11.48 | +$0.4 | 53% 7528-6656 (14184) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $14.7 | $6.6 | -$10.2 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $1.61 | $2.26 | +$0.65 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.