Consensus PnL $166K · win rate 52% (3241–2960, n=6201) · PM monthly #473 · holds 177 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$165.8K
Record
3241W / 2960L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 6201 settled
Batting Avg
49.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1602
Source
PM monthly #473
Trades
8,815
Markets
13,576
Volume
$8.9M
Top consensus positions
177 in listed consensus markets · 93 of 177 on the consensus side (53%)- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?No $1.9K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?No $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?No $1.8K · now 88¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (20% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat?Yes $1.8K · now 88¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- No one announced as next James Bond?No $1.7K · now 83¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?No $1.6K · now 78¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.4K · now 72¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No $1.4K · now 70¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (54% of 24)
Specialties
2,926 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 68¢- Weather
+20 pts
side won 87% of 1714 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +10%
- Elections
+15 pts
side won 83% of 214 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +7%
- Entertainment
+17 pts
side won 93% of 81 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 25% of 437)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 74% of 235)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 93% of 516)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 99% of 1738)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.