Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 51% (719–700, n=1419) · was PM monthly #977 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.7K
Record
719W / 700L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1419 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1682
Source
PM monthly #977
Trades
502
Markets
3,153
Volume
$440.1K
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 28 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 1?No $357 · now 92¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?No $272 · now 56¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?No $256 · now 80¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 1?No $225 · now 73¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?No $211 · now 1¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1?No $205 · now 44¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?No $195 · now 95¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 1?Yes $174 · now 22¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
904 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 71¢- Weather
+29 pts
side won 100% of 903 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 62)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 99% of 150)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 100% of 157)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 100% of 535)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.