Consensus PnL -$704K · win rate 32% (79–167, n=246) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-704.2K
Record
79W / 167L
Win Rate
32.0%
of 246 settled
Batting Avg
66.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2194
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
19,863
Markets
2,582
Volume
$17.1M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 13 on the consensus side (77%)- Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?No $553 · now 53¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?No $410 · now 78¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Yes $410 · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?No $400 · now 87¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?No $178 · now 22¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No $163 · now 72¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Yes $103 · now 51¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?No $82 · now 78¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 77¢- Weather
+20 pts
side won 72% of 25 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 86% of 36 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +4%
- Tech
+9 pts
side won 69% of 16 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 89% of 76 at an average 93¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 12% of 49)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 54% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 95% of 217)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.