Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 3?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$71.44
-$1.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LesterDiamond<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $29.1 | $29.2 | +$0.1 | 64% 5391-3044 (8435) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $28.06 | $29.08 | +$1.02 | 53% 3388-3006 (6394) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $21.52 | $13.16 | -$2.36 | 57% 17234-12896 (30130) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.