Consensus PnL $178K · win rate 56% (3297–2597, n=5894) · was PM monthly #713 · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$177.7K
Record
3297W / 2597L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 5894 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1422
Source
PM monthly #713
Record (90 d)
1311/2853 · 46%
Trades
2,035
Markets
9,656
Volume
$5.5M
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 33 on the consensus side (70%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $22K · now 18¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (77% of 70)
- Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?No $221 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?No $221 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (17% of 19)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $211 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (47% of 18)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?No $208 · now 92¢ · in at 92¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $191 · now 85¢ · in at 84¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?No $174 · now 78¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (27% of 26)
- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $137 · now 65¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
Specialties
3,649 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 65¢- MLB
+2 pts
side won 94% of 1007 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +6%
- College Football
+9 pts
side won 77% of 83 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+4 pts
side won 74% of 164 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 39% of 392 at an average 42¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 2% of 940)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 48% of 265)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 61% of 383)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 97% of 2061)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.