Consensus PnL $50K · win rate 52% (2648–2411, n=5059) · PM monthly #925 · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.6K
Record
2648W / 2411L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 5059 settled
Batting Avg
88.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1683
Source
PM monthly #925
Record (90 d)
2286/5565 · 41%
Trades
454
Markets
6,445
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 33 on the consensus side (73%)- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2?Yes $238 · now 35¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on November 2?No $210 · now 99¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 2?Yes $195 · now 92¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 2?Yes $182 · now 70¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 2?No $168 · now 57¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 2?No $139 · now 52¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 2?No $119 · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 2?No $115 · now 90¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
Specialties
3,501 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 40¢- Weather
+3 pts
side won 41% of 3395 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 44%(won 18% of 1527)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 43% of 707)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 62% of 629)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 85% of 638)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.