Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 13¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$145.52
-$29.4
17.3¢ → 13.2¢
-24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $125.19 | $94.28 | -$30.91 | 47% 703-785 (1488) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $46.29 | $47.34 | +$1.05 | 59% 1929-1356 (3285) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $3.63 | $3.9 | +$0.47 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.