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65
Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 56% (324–255, n=579) · PM monthly #402 · holds 8 consensus positions
0x65f7226a...3cd28b98Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$43.9K
Record
324W / 255L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 579 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1392
Source
PM monthly #402
Trades
151
Markets
1,439
Volume
$452.4K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 8 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?No $763 · now 83¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 1?Yes $470 · now 99¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 2?Yes $441 · now 48¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2?Yes $321 · now 29¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1?Yes $255 · now 59¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?Yes $210 · now 38¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on November 1?Yes $154 · now 27¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 1?Yes $48 · now 29¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
580 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 60¢- Weather
+39 pts
side won 99% of 580 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 100% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 94)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 97% of 187)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 99% of 233)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.