W50 Heraklion: Victoria Allen vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Ruxandra Bertea (100%) · Elena Ruxandra Bertea at 93¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Elena Ruxandra Bertea
5
Elena Ruxandra Bertea 100%
$171.02
$26.86
77.5¢ → 93¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralElena Ruxandra Bertea at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Elena Ruxandra Bertea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 73¢ | $78.27 | $96.82 | +$18.56 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 73¢ | $25.55 | $32.55 | +$7 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 90.5¢ | $19.9 | $20.46 | +$0.56 | 60% 4348-2912 (7260) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 90.5¢ | $18.09 | $18.6 | +$0.51 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Elena Ruxandra Berteaavg 88¢ | $2.67 | $2.59 | +$0.24 | 54% 6178-5224 (11402) |
RN1<$100Invested
$78.27
Value
$96.82
PnL
+$18.56
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$32.55
PnL
+$7
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$0.56
Record
60%
4348-2912 (7260)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.51
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$2.67
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
6178-5224 (11402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.