W75 Brisbane: Olivia Gadecki vs Savannah Broadus
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Olivia Gadecki (80%) · Olivia Gadecki at 86¢ · $548 held · ends Nov 19
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Neutral
Olivia Gadecki
5
Olivia Gadecki 80%
$547.75
$30.2
72.7¢ → 85.5¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOlivia Gadecki at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Olivia Gadeckiavg 72.3¢ | $228.88 | $267.95 | +$39.07 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 RN1 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 73.5¢ | $229.32 | $227.79 | -$1.53 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Savannah Broadusavg 26¢ | $38.21 | $32.14 | -$6.06 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 77.7¢ | $16.55 | $14.23 | -$1.23 | 51% 116-113 (229) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Olivia Gadeckiavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $5.65 | -$0.05 | 50% 53-52 (105) |
Invested
$228.88
Value
$267.95
PnL
+$39.07
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
RN1Invested
$229.32
Value
$227.79
PnL
-$1.53
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$38.21
Value
$32.14
PnL
-$6.06
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$14.23
PnL
-$1.23
Record
51%
116-113 (229)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
53-52 (105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.