Consensus PnL $647 · win rate 45% (173–215, n=388) · was PM monthly #901 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$646.97
Record
173W / 215L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 388 settled
Batting Avg
30.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1428
Source
PM monthly #901
Record (90 d)
207/385 · 54%
Trades
194
Markets
399
Volume
$405.2K
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev $1.2K · now 76¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (70% of 39)
- Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs maybe (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #10 Group CWRAITH PCIFIC $3 · now 34¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (maybe)
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group AZero Tenacity $3 · now 22¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (angry birds)
Specialties
367 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 54¢- NFL
+7 pts
side won 61% of 51 · avg entry 54¢
ROI −8%
- MLB
+12 pts
side won 61% of 18 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 51% of 198 at an average 55¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 13% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 46% of 101)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 55% of 177)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 74% of 66)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.