W35 Heraklion: Angella Okutoyi vs Jennifer Ruggeri
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jennifer Ruggeri (40%) · Jennifer Ruggeri at 96¢ · $863 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Jennifer Ruggeri
5
Jennifer Ruggeri 40%
$863.3
$154.36
84¢ → 96¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJennifer Ruggeri at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 83.9¢ | $667.7 | $775.9 | +$108.2 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Angella Okutoyiavg 6.1¢ | $23.56 | $79.52 | +$55.96 | 57% 3991-3004 (6995) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $3.6 | -$1.15 | 23% 108-368 (476) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Angella Okutoyiavg 20.5¢ | $2.05 | $2.8 | +$0.75 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Angella Okutoyiavg 18.7¢ | $10.87 | $1.47 | -$9.4 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
Invested
$667.7
Value
$775.9
PnL
+$108.2
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.56
Value
$79.52
PnL
+$55.96
Record
57%
3991-3004 (6995)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$1.15
Record
23%
108-368 (476)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.75
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$9.4
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.