Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Matilde Paoletti, while the market favors Jennifer Ruggeri (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Heraklion: Matilde Paoletti vs Jennifer Ruggeri
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matilde Paoletti (60%) · Matilde Paoletti at 33¢ · $27 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Matilde Paoletti
5
Matilde Paoletti 60%
$27.34
$0.67
Research grade
NeutralMatilde Paoletti at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Jennifer Ruggeri 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Matilde Paolettiavg 40¢ | $10 | $9.88 | -$0.13 | 50% 86-87 (173) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 75¢ | $6 | $6.84 | +$0.84 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Matilde Paolettiavg 42¢ | $4.62 | $4.24 | -$0.38 | 57% 4429-3409 (7838) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Matilde Paolettiavg 37¢ | $3.15 | $3.36 | +$0.21 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Jennifer Ruggeriavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $3.03 | +$0.13 | 50% 129-129 (258) |
Invested
$10
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
86-87 (173)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.84
PnL
+$0.84
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.38
Record
57%
4429-3409 (7838)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
129-129 (258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.