W35 Heraklion: Giulia Safina Popa vs Maria Golovina
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Giulia Safina Popa (40%) · Giulia Safina Popa at 74¢ · $728 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Giulia Safina Popa
5
Giulia Safina Popa 40%
$727.9
-$1
72.7¢ → 74¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiulia Safina Popa at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Giulia Safina Popaavg 71.8¢ | $323.04 | $334.62 | +$11.59 | 57% 4020-3036 (7056) |
FL Flaznorp | Giulia Safina Popaavg 73.4¢ | $358.15 | $288.16 | -$69.99 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Maria Golovinaavg 19¢ | $45.98 | $101.64 | +$55.66 | 53% 1783-1584 (3367) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Maria Golovinaavg 19¢ | $1.13 | $2.5 | +$1.37 | 49% 91-96 (187) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Maria Golovinaavg 14¢ | $0.19 | $0.57 | +$0.38 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
RN1Invested
$323.04
Value
$334.62
PnL
+$11.59
Record
57%
4020-3036 (7056)
Invested
$358.15
Value
$288.16
PnL
-$69.99
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$45.98
Value
$101.64
PnL
+$55.66
Record
53%
1783-1584 (3367)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.37
Record
49%
91-96 (187)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.57
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.