Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jaylen Waddle have 674.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 21¢ · $311 held · ends Jan 12, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 33%
$310.84
$233.32
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 28¢ | $279.99 | $205 | +$259.99 | 64% 1055-598 (1653) |
 DEGENKHAN<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $59.89 | $64.36 | -$21.86 | 67% 1172-589 (1761) |
CR crckr<$100 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $44.87 | $41.49 | -$4.82 | 31% 739-1614 (2353) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.