Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 67% (589–289, n=878) · hand-picked wallet · holds 95 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.3K
Record
589W / 289L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 878 settled
Batting Avg
56.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#841
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
114,940
Markets
2,149
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
95 in listed consensus markets · 87 of 95 on the consensus side (92%)- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $15K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $14K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $12K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No $8.7K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $8.5K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
Specialties
1,586 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 65¢- Weather
+18 pts
side won 89% of 38 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +4%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 94% of 249 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 88% of 211 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 48% of 138 at an average 49¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 7% of 493)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 49% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 61% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 98% of 1014)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.