Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 31% (711–1596, n=2307) · was PM monthly #935 · holds 52 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.2K
Record
711W / 1596L
Win Rate
31.0%
of 2307 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1610
Source
PM monthly #935
Record (90 d)
147/788 · 19%
Trades
1,744
Markets
2,963
Volume
$275.2K
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Top consensus positions
52 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 52 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Karim López win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?Yes $511 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Alex Karaban win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?Yes $495 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Music Video of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?Yes $340 · now 56¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Labaron Philon Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?Yes $300 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Konsta Helenius win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Yes $165 · now 12¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes $121 · now 37¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?Yes $115 · now 33¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Yes $109 · now 19¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,248 settled consensus markets · held side won 22% at an average entry of 19¢- Tennis
+5 pts
side won 11% of 156 · avg entry 6¢
ROI 0%
- Entertainment
+6 pts
side won 28% of 218 · avg entry 22¢
ROI +4%
- Crypto
+16 pts
side won 50% of 36 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 41% of 153 at an average 46¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 76%(won 9% of 944)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 43% of 122)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 65% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 91% of 77)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.