Exact Score: Riga FC 3 - 0 FC RFS?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $291 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$291.33
-$7.72
96.7¢ → 91.3¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.3¢ | $173.64 | $164.52 | -$9.59 | 45% 2738-3312 (6050) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $52.98 | $50.08 | -$3.05 | 45% 2673-3235 (5908) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $36.2 | $33.61 | -$2.73 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $31.3 | $29.43 | -$1.82 | 46% 2762-3197 (5959) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $13.69 | $13.69 | +$9.46 | 21% 629-2353 (2982) |
Invested
$173.64
Value
$164.52
PnL
-$9.59
Record
45%
2738-3312 (6050)
Invested
$52.98
Value
$50.08
PnL
-$3.05
Record
45%
2673-3235 (5908)
Invested
$36.2
Value
$33.61
PnL
-$2.73
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Invested
$31.3
Value
$29.43
PnL
-$1.82
Record
46%
2762-3197 (5959)
Invested
$13.69
Value
$13.69
PnL
+$9.46
Record
21%
629-2353 (2982)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.