Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 53% (300–268, n=568) · PM monthly #871 · holds 127 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.7K
Record
300W / 268L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 568 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1646
Source
PM monthly #871
Record (90 d)
193/216 · 89%
Trades
28
Markets
1,036
Volume
$669.9K
Top consensus positions
127 in listed consensus markets · 85 of 127 on the consensus side (67%)- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-11-02?No $19K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 30)
- Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-11-02?No $18K · now 83¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (72% of 31)
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Over $16K · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (88% of 18)
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?No $16K · now 100¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Kings vs. MavericksMavericks $9.9K · now 75¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (64% of 26)
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hawks $8.0K · now 62¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (31% of 18)
- Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy CassoneMurphy Cassone $7.5K · now 78¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (68% of 26)
- Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5Under $7.0K · now 84¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (50% of 30)
Specialties
150 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- Soccer
+30 pts
side won 100% of 106 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +41%
- Tennis
+33 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 100% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 100% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 34)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 69)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.