Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $265 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$265.29
$1.28
85.4¢ → 97.2¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 85¢ | $160.08 | $161.97 | +$0.94 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 86¢ | $100.22 | $86.69 | +$0.5 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $7.77 | $7.72 | -$0.05 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $7.06 | $7.01 | -$0.05 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | -$0.06 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$160.08
Value
$161.97
PnL
+$0.94
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$100.22
Value
$86.69
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$7.06
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.