Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.0K
-$44.35
47.3¢ → 46.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 47.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$42.64 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 50.5¢ | $303.62 | $324.61 | +$2.95 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Overavg 47.2¢ | $146.55 | $142.7 | -$3.85 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $46.89 | $46.89 | -$0 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $35.81 | $35 | -$0.8 | 59% 6849-4851 (11700) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,517.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$42.64
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$303.62
Value
$324.61
PnL
+$2.95
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$146.55
Value
$142.7
PnL
-$3.85
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$46.89
Value
$46.89
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$35.81
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.8
Record
59%
6849-4851 (11700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.