Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 59% (6294–4311, n=10605) · PM monthly #455 · holds 60 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.4K
Record
6294W / 4311L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 10605 settled
Batting Avg
66.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#860
Source
PM monthly #455
Record (90 d)
2616/2803 · 93%
Trades
20,696
Markets
11,718
Volume
$776.9K
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Top consensus positions
60 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 60 on the consensus side (77%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $152 · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (24% of 53)
- Oxford United FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 2.5Under $103 · now 51¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Over)
- Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs OmanUAE $101 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsYes $100 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?No $96 · now 100¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Tlaxcala FC vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 3.5Over $73 · now 42¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Under)
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Over $72 · now 45¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (68% of 25)
- SK Artis Brno vs. Bohemians Praha 1905: O/U 2.5Under $67 · now 28¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
2,270 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+43 pts
side won 100% of 326 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +50%
- Weather
+46 pts
side won 100% of 40 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
- Tennis
+36 pts
side won 100% of 493 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 91% of 145)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 97% of 468)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 98% of 778)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 100% of 879)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.