Consensus PnL $142K · win rate 51% (3866–3697, n=7563) · PM monthly #256 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$141.7K
Record
3866W / 3697L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 7563 settled
Batting Avg
68.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1677
Source
PM monthly #256
Trades
1,699
Markets
9,618
Volume
$17.9M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 15 on the consensus side (53%)- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Steelers $8.9K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Over $4.8K · now 47¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (82% of 12)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $4.8K · now 46¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $4.0K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under $3.0K · now 92¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $2.8K · now 42¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (61% of 43)
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors $2.2K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Clippers)
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio $1.8K · now 72¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (64% of 24)
Specialties
3,509 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 48¢- Tennis
+65 pts
side won 100% of 349 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +66%
- MMA
+64 pts
side won 100% of 84 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +63%
- College Football
+53 pts
side won 100% of 215 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +53%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 247)
- 30–50¢: 55%(won 100% of 1920)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 100% of 1123)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 99% of 219)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.