Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 209.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 32¢ · $353 held · ends Nov 11

Over69¢Under31¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$353.04

Combined PnL

$0.2

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$31.43

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.8

Under4 traders

Total Value$33.59

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$0.6

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 67¢	$282.52	$288.02	+$5.5	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67¢	$184.25	$189.75	+$5.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 31¢	$98.27	$98.27	+$0
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 67¢	$36.33	$31.43	+$0.8	49% 440-464 (904)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$14.26	$14.26	+$0	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$9.85	$9.25	-$0.6	26% 234-653 (887)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$6.74	$6.74	+$0	54% 358-310 (668)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.34	$3.34	+$0	32% 184-398 (582)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$282.52

Value

$288.02

PnL

+$5.5

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.33

Value

$31.43

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.26

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$0.6

Record

26%

234-653 (887)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.74

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

358-310 (668)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.