Spread: Celtics (-16.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (100%) · Raptors at 90¢ · $640 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics10¢Raptors90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 100%

Total Value

$639.57

Combined PnL

$33.52

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 90¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics10%

Raptors90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$639.57

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$33.52

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Raptorsavg 81.1¢	$392.53	$329.05	+$26.51	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 79¢	$225.56	$111.4	+$3.29	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
RN1	Raptorsavg 85.8¢	$106.69	$107.51	+$0.82	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
SE sentrio<$100	Raptorsavg 80.9¢	$83.29	$86.01	+$2.72	39% 382-610 (992)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 79¢	$25.19	$5.6	+$0.17	49% 684-724 (1408)

Flaznorp

Raptors

Invested

$392.53

Value

$329.05

PnL

+$26.51

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$225.56

Value

$111.4

PnL

+$3.29

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$106.69

Value

$107.51

PnL

+$0.82

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

sentrio<$100

Raptors

Invested

$83.29

Value

$86.01

PnL

+$2.72

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.19

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.