Spread: Celtics (-24.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 97¢ · $998 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics3¢Raptors97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$998.18

Combined PnL

$12.61

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 97.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics3%

Raptors97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$951.24

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$4.54

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$46.94

Total Shares722

Combined PnL+$8.07

Raptors — 50%Celtics — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Raptorsavg 94.6¢	$930.5	$934.88	+$4.38	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Celticsavg 5.7¢	$20.72	$23.49	+$2.77	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Celticsavg 5¢	$10	$13	+$3	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
SE sentrio<$100	Raptorsavg 92¢	$11.5	$11.69	+$0.19	39% 382-610 (992)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 5.1¢	$8.15	$10.45	+$2.3	49% 684-724 (1408)
RN1<$100	Raptorsavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.68	-$0.02	57% 4056-3070 (7126)

Flaznorp

Raptors

Invested

$930.5

Value

$934.88

PnL

+$4.38

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$20.72

Value

$23.49

PnL

+$2.77

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10

Value

$13

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

sentrio<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.15

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$2.3

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

RN1<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.