Spread: Celtics (-26.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 98¢ · $919 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
$918.63
-$3.28
94.8¢ → 97.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 94.8¢ | $711.76 | $720.92 | +$9.16 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Raptorsavg 95¢ | $166.35 | $168.1 | +$1.75 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 6¢ | $31.62 | $23.8 | -$7.82 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 5¢ | $9 | $3.69 | -$5.31 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 6¢ | $3.18 | $2.12 | -$1.06 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
Invested
$711.76
Value
$720.92
PnL
+$9.16
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$166.35
Value
$168.1
PnL
+$1.75
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$23.8
PnL
-$7.82
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$3.69
PnL
-$5.31
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$1.06
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.