Consensus PnL $204K · win rate 65% (2759–1467, n=4226) · PM monthly #528 · holds 228 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$203.8K
Record
2759W / 1467L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 4226 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#975
Source
PM monthly #528
Record (90 d)
4027/4630 · 87%
Trades
64,317
Markets
13,123
Volume
$18.1M
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Top consensus positions
228 in listed consensus markets · 183 of 228 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?No $13K · now 0¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 111)
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?Yes $11K · now 0¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (No)
- Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 6.5Under $10K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (64% of 33)
- Will Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?No $7.3K · now 100¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (69% of 54)
- Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: AS Roma O/U 2.5Under $7.2K · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (39% of 18)
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under $7.1K · now 100¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (59% of 55)
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC $6.5K · now 100¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Villarreal CF)
- Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 5.5Under $6.1K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
Specialties
1,620 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 75¢- NBA
+35 pts
side won 100% of 219 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +33%
- NFL
+29 pts
side won 100% of 265 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +32%
- College Football
+28 pts
side won 100% of 309 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 154)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 100% of 353)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 100% of 1059)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.