Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (100%) · Cavaliers at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
5
Cavaliers 100%
$1.3K
$211.77
38.4¢ → 38.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Cavaliersavg 38.2¢ | $760.91 | $915.11 | +$154.2 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Cavaliersavg 39¢ | $184.86 | $218.04 | +$33.18 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Cavaliersavg 38¢ | $98.8 | $119.6 | +$20.8 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 38¢ | $9.5 | $11.5 | +$2 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 39¢ | $8.84 | $10.43 | +$1.59 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$760.91
Value
$915.11
PnL
+$154.2
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$184.86
Value
$218.04
PnL
+$33.18
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$98.8
Value
$119.6
PnL
+$20.8
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$10.43
PnL
+$1.59
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.