Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 34¢ · $170 held · ended Nov 12

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$169.7

Combined PnL

-$1.98

Research grade

AvoidOver at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$116.88

Total Shares174

Combined PnL-$6.6

Over3 traders

Total Value$52.82

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$4.62

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 67¢	$79.05	$79.64	+$0.59	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 32.9¢	$39.17	$38.75	-$0.42	55% 718-583 (1301)
RN1<$100	Underavg 79.3¢	$44.43	$37.24	-$7.19	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$7.77	$12.03	+$4.26	49% 684-724 (1408)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$1.26	$2.04	+$0.78	48% 1420-1557 (2977)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$79.05

Value

$79.64

PnL

+$0.59

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.17

Value

$38.75

PnL

-$0.42

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$44.43

Value

$37.24

PnL

-$7.19

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.77

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$4.26

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.26

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.