Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 79¢ · $818 held · ended Nov 12

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$817.79

Combined PnL

$17

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 79¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$815.91

Total Shares865

Combined PnL+$16.59

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.88

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.41

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 86.3¢	$559.45	$573.48	+$14.03	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 80¢	$196.37	$202.93	+$6.56	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 87¢	$43.5	$39.5	-$4	49% 684-724 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$0.97	$1.36	+$0.39	55% 718-583 (1301)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.49	$0.52	+$0.02	50% 3299-3255 (6554)

RN1

Under

Invested

$559.45

Value

$573.48

PnL

+$14.03

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$196.37

Value

$202.93

PnL

+$6.56

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$43.5

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$4

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.39

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.