Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Warriors (65%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (60%) · Rockets at 36¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
5
Rockets 60%
$150.36
-$0.17
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Warriorsavg 65¢ | $56.55 | $55.68 | -$0.87 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 35¢ | $41.65 | $41.65 | +$0 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 34¢ | $33.03 | $34 | +$0.97 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Warriorsavg 65¢ | $17.55 | $17.28 | -$0.27 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.75 | +$0 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
Invested
$56.55
Value
$55.68
PnL
-$0.87
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$41.65
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
Invested
$33.03
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.97
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$17.55
Value
$17.28
PnL
-$0.27
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.